Charvatova's Solar Inertial Motion (SIM) hypothesis - similar SIM curves yield
similar solar activity
An exciting twist to a 150-year model for solar activity has been presented by
Ivanka Charvatova of the Institute of Geophysics in Praha, the Czech Republic.
While she still works on physics based models to establish a link between
sun-barycenter movements (as have many
others), she has proposed that periods of similar SIM curves would have similar
solar activity. This gives a simple but powerful, phenomenlogically uncommitted
way of testing for a correlation between SIM and solar activity, beyond past
approaches.
Given the limited amount of sunspot data (~300 or 400 years, with quality data
for only 150 years, and a basic SIM period of 178 years), there are only a
couple of periods that have been compared,
and the results are striking. Phasing is especially good, and the current years
and projections are covered.
I think that Charvatova's approach has great potential.
Charvatova's own papers and presentations
Unfortunately, due to copyright restrictions I can't post CHarvatova's publications,
but I can post presentations and a list of her publications. Here's an Aug08
presentation on Solar Inertial Motions and climate. One slide shows the near exact
correspondance of Fourier and power spectrum periodicities / frequencies for SIM
and values for climate. But floods, volcanoes etc are also covered!
Charvatova, Hejda Aug08 - A possible role of the solar inertial motion in climatic changes.pdf
Here's the list of Charvatova's publications:
Charvatova - list of publications.doc
Solar activity, climate and history over the last 7 ky using Charvatova's
hypothesis and radiocarbon dating curves
Will we be able to forecast solar activity 3,000 years into the future??
Probably not with what we have at hand, but we can try.
21Aug08 - This paper and its supporting files are in a very incomplete, preliminary draft.
However, Figure A.2 in Appendix A is especially interesting, as it suggests at
least a "phase synchronization" between Solar Inertial Motion (SIM) and solar
activity, with the 2,402.2 year Charvatovan "long cycle".
Howell Aug08 - Charvatova's hypothesis & Isotopic solar proxies.pdf
Here's a nice one-page chart to show the essence of the radio-isotope (solar activity)
relation to Charvatova's 2.4 ky period of Solar Inertial Motion (SIM).
It's best to print it out on 11 inch by 17 inch paper or larger (3 feet by 4
feet is even better!):
Howell Aug08 - Charvatova's hypothesis & Isotopic solar proxies - graphs of time folding & bending.pdf
Here's a 3 foot by 4 foot chart of data folded and bent according to the Charvatovan
"long" (2.4 ky) cycle, including isotope data, temperature, and history timelines.
Howell - history timelines and radioisotopes.jpg
I also need a better temperature series, such as Loehle's over the
last 2 millenia, but extending back 7 ky.
By the way, looking at these charts, what do YOU think it implies for climate
over the next 100 years?
...And hopefully by 31Oct08 I'll post the "time folded and bent" chart of history
(this could be messy).
Supporting documents, spreadsheets etc
....Note that these are in "open document" format (eg Sun StarOffice)
and NOT Microsoft (Excel, Word)
Independent verification of Charvatova's results
I have prepared an initial draft verification of the SIM curves by Charvatova,
plus I've provided some related comments, such as the lack of a correspondence
between Usoskin/Solanki decadal beryllium 10 curves for periods of similar SIM.
Howell - solar inertial motion - NASA-JPL versus Charvatova.pdf
Supporting documents, spreadsheets etc
....Note that these are in "open document" format (eg Sun StarOffice)
and NOT Microsoft (Excel, Word)
Charvatova's presentations and lists of publications are her property.
Updates:
15Jun08 - initial, incomplete draft with: Howell - solar inertial motion - NASA-JPL versus Charvatova.pdf
21Aug08 - added Solar activity, climate and history over the last 7 ky using
Charvatova's hypothesis and radiocarbon dating curves
03Sep08 - added 3' by 4' chart of SIM, isotopes, temperature and history folded and bent
according to CHarvatovan long (2.4 ky) periods
- also posted Charvatova/ Hejda presenation of Aug08, and a list of Charvatova's presentations